Integrated indicator of the possibility of bankruptcy of corporate enterprises
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35774/econa2017.03.182Keywords:
corporate enterprise, probability of bankruptcy, bankruptcy factors, qualitative indicators, quantitative indicators, integral probability of bankruptcy, fuzzy logicAbstract
Introduction. With the growth of the corporate sector of the economy, it is necessary to develop analytical tools, solve methodological and practical problems related to the analysis and monitoring of the probability of bankruptcy of corporate enterprises.
Goal. The article aims to study the possibilities of using existing economic and mathematical models on the basis of the theory of fuzzy logic to investigate the probability of bankruptcy of corporate enterprises.
Method (methodology). The works of leading domestic and foreign experts in the field of crisis management of enterprises, in particular, the diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy have become the theoretical and methodological basis of the work. In the course of the study, general knowledge on economic analysis, structural and dynamic and expert analysis has been used.
Results. The advantages and possibilities of the theory of fuzzy logic concerning the analysis of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises have been revealed. The expediency of application of this economic and mathematical device for the analysis of financial stability and probability of bankruptcy of corporate enterprises has been substantiated. To characterize the probability of bankruptcy of corporate enterprises, it is suggested to use an integral indicator based on the theory of fuzzy logic. It is concluded that fuzzy logic methods allow analyzing the probability of bankruptcy of corporate enterprises under uncertainty, for example, in cases where statistical data for analysis are limited, or when qualitative data is to be included in the list of indicators under investigation. Models, which are built on basis of fuzzy logic, allow to analyze the current probability of bankruptcy of a corporate enterprise and to predict its future state.
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